Supreme Court Scrutiny of Trump’s Trade Authority Sparks Prediction Market Volatility
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show dramatic swings as the U.S. Supreme Court reviews the constitutionality of presidential tariff powers. Over $1.3 million in wagers reflects heightened uncertainty about trade policy authority.
The case examines whether Trump's use of emergency economic powers under the 1977 IEEPA overstepped executive boundaries. Several justices expressed skepticism during oral arguments, triggering immediate reactions in political futures markets.
This convergence of constitutional law and decentralized finance platforms highlights how prediction markets now serve as real-time gauges of institutional power shifts. The outcome could redefine presidential authority in global trade negotiations.